A Graph-based Stratified Sampling Methodology for the Analysis of (Underground) Forums

Abstract: [Context] Researchers analyze underground forums to study abuse and cybercrime activities. Due to the size of the forums and the domain expertise required to identify criminal discussions, most approaches employ supervised machine learning techniques to automatically classify the posts of interest. [Goal] Human annotation is costly. How to select samples to annotate that account for the structure of the forum? [Method] We present a methodology to generate stratified samples based on information about the centrality properties of the population and evaluate classifier performance. [Result] We observe that by employing a sample obtained from a uniform distribution of the post degree centrality metric, we maintain the same level of precision but significantly increase the recall (+30%) compared to a sample whose distribution is respecting the population stratification. We find that classifiers trained with similar samples disagree on the classification of criminal activities up to 33% of the time when deployed on the entire forum.