Non-free sections of Fano fibrations (2301.01695v4)

Abstract: Let $B$ be a smooth projective curve and let $\pi: \mathcal{X} \to B$ be a smooth integral model of a geometrically integral Fano variety over $K(B)$. Geometric Manin's Conjecture predicts the structure of the irreducible components $M \subset \textrm{Sec}(\mathcal{X}/B)$ which parametrize non-relatively free sections of sufficiently large anticanonical degree. Over the complex numbers, we prove that for any such component $M$ the sections come from morphisms $f: \mathcal{Y} \to \mathcal{X}$ such that the generic fiber of $\mathcal{Y}$ has Fujita invariant $\geq 1$. Furthermore, we prove that there is a bounded family of morphisms $f$ which together account for all such components $M$. These results verify the first part of Batyrev's heuristics for Geometric Manin's Conjecture over $\mathbb{C}$. Our result has ramifications for Manin's Conjecture over global function fields: if we start with a Fano fibration over a number field and reduce mod $p$, we obtain upper bounds of the desired form by first letting the prime go to infinity, then the height.