A Bayesian Approach to Probabilistic Solar Irradiance Forecasting

Abstract: The output of solar power generation is significantly dependent on the available solar radiation. Thus, with the proliferation of PV generation in the modern power grid, forecasting of solar irradiance is vital for proper operation of the grid. To achieve an improved accuracy in prediction performance, this paper discusses a Bayesian treatment of probabilistic forecasting. The approach is demonstrated using publicly available data obtained from the Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN). The algorithm is developed in Python and the results are compared with point forecasts, other probabilistic methods and actual field results obtained for the period.