Inequality of Opportunity and Income Redistribution

Abstract: Opportunities, such as access to education or family background, shape income inequality by influencing the chances of economic success. Unequal opportunities create uncertainty about whether success is merit- or luck-based. We examine how uncertainty impacts preferences for redistribution, comparing it to more transparent forms of luck. Using a U.S.-representative sample, we elicit redistribution decisions in two environments: when workers' earnings are influenced by luck directly ("lucky outcomes") or indirectly ("lucky opportunities"). Spectators redistribute less and are less sensitive to differences in luck under opportunities. Inferential challenges drive this gap, which implies that individuals are less meritocratic than previous findings suggest.