Carefully choose the baseline: Lessons learned from applying XAI attribution methods for regression tasks in geoscience (2208.09473v1)

Abstract: Methods of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) are used in geoscientific applications to gain insights into the decision-making strategy of Neural Networks (NNs) highlighting which features in the input contribute the most to a NN prediction. Here, we discuss our lesson learned that the task of attributing a prediction to the input does not have a single solution. Instead, the attribution results and their interpretation depend greatly on the considered baseline (sometimes referred to as reference point) that the XAI method utilizes; a fact that has been overlooked so far in the literature. This baseline can be chosen by the user or it is set by construction in the method s algorithm, often without the user being aware of that choice. We highlight that different baselines can lead to different insights for different science questions and, thus, should be chosen accordingly. To illustrate the impact of the baseline, we use a large ensemble of historical and future climate simulations forced with the SSP3-7.0 scenario and train a fully connected NN to predict the ensemble- and global-mean temperature (i.e., the forced global warming signal) given an annual temperature map from an individual ensemble member. We then use various XAI methods and different baselines to attribute the network predictions to the input. We show that attributions differ substantially when considering different baselines, as they correspond to answering different science questions. We conclude by discussing some important implications and considerations about the use of baselines in XAI research.