Wasserstein posterior contraction rates in non-dominated Bayesian nonparametric models

Abstract: Posterior contractions rates (PCRs) strengthen the notion of Bayesian consistency, quantifying the speed at which the posterior distribution concentrates on arbitrarily small neighborhoods of the true model, with probability tending to 1 or almost surely, as the sample size goes to infinity. Under the Bayesian nonparametric framework, a common assumption in the study of PCRs is that the model is dominated for the observations; that is, it is assumed that the posterior can be written through the Bayes formula. In this paper, we consider the problem of establishing PCRs in Bayesian nonparametric models where the posterior distribution is not available through the Bayes formula, and hence models that are non-dominated for the observations. By means of the Wasserstein distance and a suitable sieve construction, our main result establishes PCRs in Bayesian nonparametric models where the posterior is available through a more general disintegration than the Bayes formula. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first general approach to provide PCRs in non-dominated Bayesian nonparametric models, and it relies on minimal modeling assumptions and on a suitable continuity assumption for the posterior distribution. Some refinements of our result are presented under additional assumptions on the prior distribution, and applications are given with respect to the Dirichlet process prior and the normalized extended Gamma process prior.