Online Adaptation of Neural Network Models by Modified Extended Kalman Filter for Customizable and Transferable Driving Behavior Prediction (2112.06129v2)

Abstract: High fidelity behavior prediction of human drivers is crucial for efficient and safe deployment of autonomous vehicles, which is challenging due to the stochasticity, heterogeneity, and time-varying nature of human behaviors. On one hand, the trained prediction model can only capture the motion pattern in an average sense, while the nuances among individuals can hardly be reflected. On the other hand, the prediction model trained on the training set may not generalize to the testing set which may be in a different scenario or data distribution, resulting in low transferability and generalizability. In this paper, we applied a $\tau$-step modified Extended Kalman Filter parameter adaptation algorithm (MEKF$_\lambda$) to the driving behavior prediction task, which has not been studied before in literature. With the feedback of the observed trajectory, the algorithm is applied to neural-network-based models to improve the performance of driving behavior predictions across different human subjects and scenarios. A new set of metrics is proposed for systematic evaluation of online adaptation performance in reducing the prediction error for different individuals and scenarios. Empirical studies on the best layer in the model and steps of observation to adapt are also provided.