Data-driven approaches for predicting spread of infectious diseases through DINNs: Disease Informed Neural Networks

Abstract: In this work, we present an approach called Disease Informed Neural Networks (DINNs) that can be employed to effectively predict the spread of infectious diseases. This approach builds on a successful physics informed neural network approaches that have been applied to a variety of applications that can be modeled by linear and non-linear ordinary and partial differential equations. Specifically, we build on the application of PINNs to SIR compartmental models and expand it a scaffolded family of mathematical models describing various infectious diseases. We show how the neural networks are capable of learning how diseases spread, forecasting their progression, and finding their unique parameters (e.g. death rate). To demonstrate the robustness and efficacy of DINNs, we apply the approach to eleven highly infectious diseases that have been modeled in increasing levels of complexity. Our computational experiments suggest that DINNs is a reliable candidate for effectively learn about the dynamics of spread and forecast its progression into the future from available real-world data.