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Climate uncertainties caused by unknown land distribution on habitable M-Earths (2110.04310v1)

Published 8 Oct 2021 in astro-ph.EP

Abstract: A planet's surface conditions can significantly impact its climate and habitability. In this study, we use the 3D general circulation model ExoPlaSim to systematically vary dayside land cover on a synchronously rotating, temperate rocky planet under two extreme and opposite continent configurations, in which either all of the land or all of the ocean is centred at the substellar point. We identify water vapour and sea ice as competing drivers of climate, and we isolate land-dependent regimes under which one or the other dominates. We find that the amount and configuration of land can change the planet's globally averaged surface temperature by up to 20K, and its atmospheric water vapour content by several orders of magnitude. The most discrepant models have partial dayside land cover with opposite continent configurations. Since transit spectroscopy may permit observations of M-dwarf planets' atmospheres, but not their surfaces, these land-related climate differences likely represent a limiting uncertainty in a given planet's climate, even if its atmospheric composition is known. Our results are robust to variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration, stellar temperature, and instellation.

Citations (9)

Summary

  • The paper uses a 3D climate model to show that land distribution on tidally locked M-Earths significantly impacts climate, with global temperature varying up to 20 K.
  • Simulations show dayside land leads to cooler, drier climates compared to dayside oceans, which promote evaporation and result in warmer, more humid conditions.
  • The study shows that accurately modeling M-Earth climates and interpreting observational data requires detailed information about surface properties, which are currently unknown.

Analysis of Climate Variability on Synchronously Rotating M-Earths: The Role of Dayside Land Distribution

The paper "Climate uncertainties caused by unknown land distribution on habitable M-Earths" by Macdonald et al. explores the intricate dynamics of climate modulation on synchronously rotating, temperate rocky exoplanets, particularly those orbiting M-dwarf stars, commonly referred to as M-Earths. The research utilizes the ExoPlaSim, a 3D general circulation model, to elucidate how different land distributions on the dayside of these planets can significantly influence their climates, despite having identical atmospheric compositions. This paper is distinguished by its focus on the spatial configuration of land masses and oceans on M-Earths that exhibit tidally locked rotation, introducing crucial insights into an often-overlooked aspect of exoplanetary climate science.

Simulation Framework and Methodology

The paper embarks on a systematic variation of dayside land cover across two extreme land configuration scenarios: "SubCont," where a substantial land mass is positioned at the substellar point, and "SubOcean," which features a central ocean at the substellar point, with land covering the surrounding regions. These configurations aim to capture the limits of climate variability driven by land distribution.

Employing ExoPlaSim, the simulations provide a high-resolution depiction of the planet's circulation patterns, temperature profiles, and water vapor dynamics across different land-coverage scenarios. The paper also introduces models with randomly distributed continents ("RandCont") to explore intermediate scenarios and validate the broader trends observed in the extreme configurations.

Key Findings and Climate Regimes

Central to the findings is the complexity of feedback mechanisms triggered by varying land-ocean distributions. The research reveals that the globally averaged surface temperature can vary by up to 20 K due to land configuration. SubCont models, with larger land masses at the substellar point, exhibit diminished atmospheric water vapor contents and cooler temperature profiles due to reduced evaporation and land's higher albedo relative to oceans. Conversely, SubOcean models display peak temperatures and humidity at intermediate land fractions, driven by extensive substellar ocean area facilitating significant evaporation.

This dichotomy is further underscored by the influence of land albedo and the role of sea ice. In SubOcean scenarios, the impact of high-albedo ice can counteract warming effects, leading to a non-linear relationship between land fraction and climate variables.

Theoretical and Observational Implications

The implications of this work are multifaceted, affecting both theoretical understanding and observational strategies in exoplanet studies. The pronounced sensitivity of M-Earth climates to surface configurations underscores the limitations of current atmospheric models that neglect surface characterization. The insights gleaned here reinforce the notion that detailed surface properties must be integrated into atmospheric models to accurately predict the habitability of exoplanets.

Furthermore, the findings have far-reaching implications for observational astronomy, particularly for the upcoming era of space telescopes like the James Webb Space Telescope, which aims to characterize the atmospheres of terrestrial exoplanets. Recognizing the climate impact of unseen surface distributions helps define the boundaries within which atmospheric observations can yield reliable insights.

Future Directions

The paper opens avenues for further exploration into the coupled effects of dynamic oceans and atmospheric processes, as well as the incorporation of topographic variations and other geophysical processes like plate tectonics and volcanic activity. These factors could further influence the climate stability and biogeochemical cycles essential for sustaining life.

In summary, the research presented by Macdonald et al. provides a nuanced understanding of how land distribution on M-Earths can drive substantial climate variability, marking a significant step forward in the paper of exoplanetary climates. The insights elucidated here contribute critically to refining the models used to predict the habitability of terrestrial exoplanets in stark contrast to Earth-like conditions.

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