Most Probable Transitions from Metastable to Oscillatory Regimes in a Carbon Cycle System

Abstract: Global climate changes are related to the ocean's store of carbon. We study a carbonate system of the upper ocean, which has metastable and oscillatory regimes, under small random fluctuations. We calculate the most probable transition path via a geometric minimum action method in the context of the large deviations theory. By examining the most probable transition paths from metastable to oscillatory regimes for various external carbon input rates, we find two different transition patterns, which gives us an early warning sign for the dramatic change in the carbonate state of the ocean.