On Analyzing Churn Prediction in Mobile Games

Abstract: In subscription-based businesses, the churn rate refers to the percentage of customers who discontinue their subscriptions within a given time period. Particularly, in the mobile games industry, the churn rate is often pronounced due to the high competition and cost in customer acquisition; therefore, the process of minimizing the churn rate is crucial. This needs churn prediction, predicting users who will be churning within a given time period. Accurate churn prediction can enable the businesses to devise and engage strategic remediations to maintain a low churn rate. The paper presents our highly accurate churn prediction method. We designed this method to take into account each individual user's distinct usage period in churn prediction. As presented in the paper, this approach was able to achieve 96.6% churn prediction accuracy on a real game business. In addition, the paper shows that other existing churn prediction algorithms are improved in prediction accuracy when this method is applied.