On Bayesian Estimation of Densities and Sampling Distributions: the Posterior Predictive Distribution as the Bayes Estimator

Abstract: Optimality results for two outstanding Bayesian estimation problems are given in this paper: the estimation of the sampling distribution for the squared total variation function and the estimation of the density for the $L^1$-squared loss function. The posterior predictive distribution provides the solution to these problems. Some examples are presented to illustrate it. The Bayesian estimation problem of a distribution function is also addressed. Consistency of the estimator of the density is proved.