Predicting the number of coauthors for researchers: A learning model

Abstract: Predicting the number of coauthors for researchers contributes to understanding the development of team science. However, it is an elusive task due to diversity in the collaboration patterns of researchers. This study provides a learning model for the dynamics of this variable; the parameters are learned from empirical data that consist of the number of publications and the number of coauthors at given time intervals. The model is based on relationship between the annual number of new coauthors and time given an annual number of publications, the relationship between the annual number of publications and time given a historical number of publications, and Lotka's law. The assumptions of the model are validated by applying it on the high-quality dblp dataset. The effectiveness of the model is tested on the dataset by satisfactory fittings on the evolutionary trend of the number of coauthors for researchers, the distribution of this variable, and the occurrence probability of collaboration events. Due to its regression nature, the model has the potential to be extended to assess the confidence level of the prediction results and thus has applicability to other empirical research.