Reducing network size and improving prediction stability of reservoir computing

Abstract: Reservoir computing is a very promising approach for the prediction of complex nonlinear dynamical systems. Besides capturing the exact short-term trajectories of nonlinear systems, it has also proved to reproduce its characteristic long-term properties very accurately. However, predictions do not always work equivalently well. It has been shown that both short- and long-term predictions vary significantly among different random realizations of the reservoir. In order to gain an understanding on when reservoir computing works best, we investigate some differential properties of the respective realization of the reservoir in a systematic way. We find that removing nodes that correspond to the largest weights in the output regression matrix reduces outliers and improves overall prediction quality. Moreover, this allows to effectively reduce the network size and, therefore, increase computational efficiency. In addition, we use a nonlinear scaling factor in the hyperbolic tangent of the activation function. This adjusts the response of the activation function to the range of values of the input variables of the nodes. As a consequence, this reduces the number of outliers significantly and increases both the short- and long-term prediction quality for the nonlinear systems investigated in this study. Our results demonstrate that a large optimization potential lies in the systematical refinement of the differential reservoir properties for a given dataset.