$H_0$ Reconstruction with Type Ia Supernovae, Baryon Acoustic Oscillation and Gravitational Lensing Time-Delay (2001.08713v2)

Abstract: There is a persistent $H_0$-tension, now at more than $\gtrsim 4\sigma$ level, between the local distance ladder value and the \emph{Planck} cosmic microwave background measurement, in the context of flat $\Lambda$CDM model. We reconstruct $H(z)$ in a cosmological-model-independent way using three low-redshift distance probes including the latest data from baryon acoustic oscillation, Type Ia supernova and four gravitational lensing Time-Delay observations. We adopt general parametric models of $H(z)$ and assume a Gaussian prior on the sound horizon at drag epoch, $r_{\mathrm s}$, from \emph{Planck} measurement. The reconstructed $H_0$ using Pantheon SN Ia and BAO data are consistent with the \emph{Planck} flat $\Lambda$CDM value. When including the GLTD data, $H_0$ increases mildly, yet remaining discrepant with the local measurement at $\sim 2.5\sigma$ level. Our reconstructions being blind to the dark sectors at low redshift, we reaffirm the earlier claims that the Hubble tension is not likely to be solved by modifying the energy budget of the low-redshift universe. We further forecast the constraining ability of future realistic mock BAO data from DESI and GLTD data from LSST, combining which, we anticipate that the uncertainty of the inferred $H_0$ would be improved by $\sim 38\%$, reaching $\sigma_{H_0} \approx 0.56$ uncertainty level.