Adaptive and Efficient Algorithms for Tracking the Best Expert

Abstract: In this paper, we consider the problem of prediction with expert advice in dynamic environments. We choose tracking regret as the performance metric and develop two adaptive and efficient algorithms with data-dependent tracking regret bounds. The first algorithm achieves a second-order tracking regret bound, which improves existing first-order bounds. The second algorithm enjoys a path-length bound, which is generally not comparable to the second-order bound but offers advantages in slowly moving environments. Both algorithms are developed under the online mirror descent framework and draw inspiration from existing algorithms that attain data-dependent bounds of static regret. The key idea is to use a clipped simplex in the updating step of online mirror descent. Finally, we extend our algorithms and analysis to online matrix prediction and provide the first data-dependent tracking regret bound for this problem.