A Methodology for Analyzing Uptake of Software Technologies Among Developers

Abstract: Motivation: The question of what combination of attributes drives the adoption of a particular software technology is critical to developers. It determines both those technologies that receive wide support from the community and those which may be abandoned, thus rendering developers' investments worthless. Aim and Context: We model software technology adoption by developers and provide insights on specific technology attributes that are associated with better visibility among alternative technologies. Approach: We leverage social contagion theory and statistical modeling to identify, define, and test empirically measures that are likely to affect software adoption. More specifically, we leverage a large collection of open source version control repositories to construct a software dependency chain for a specific set of R language source-code files. We formulate logistic regression models, to investigate the combination of technological attributes that drive adoption among competing data frame implementations in the R language: tidy and data.table. We quantify key project attributes that might affect adoption and also characteristics of developers making the selection. Results: We find that a quick response to raised issues, a larger number of overall deployments, and a larger number of high-quality StackExchange questions are associated with higher adoption. Decision makers tend to adopt the technology that is closer to them in the technical dependency network and in author collaborations networks while meeting their performance needs. Future work: We hope that our methodology encompassing social contagion that captures both rational and irrational preferences and the elucidation of key measures from large collections of version control data provides a general path toward increasing visibility, driving better informed decisions, and producing more sustainable and widely adopted software