Personalized Gaussian Processes for Forecasting of Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale-Cognition Sub-Scale (ADAS-Cog13)

Abstract: In this paper, we introduce the use of a personalized Gaussian Process model (pGP) to predict per-patient changes in ADAS-Cog13 -- a significant predictor of Alzheimer's Disease (AD) in the cognitive domain -- using data from each patient's previous visits, and testing on future (held-out) data. We start by learning a population-level model using multi-modal data from previously seen patients using a base Gaussian Process (GP) regression. The personalized GP (pGP) is formed by adapting the base GP sequentially over time to a new (target) patient using domain adaptive GPs. We extend this personalized approach to predict the values of ADAS-Cog13 over the future 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. We compare this approach to a GP model trained only on past data of the target patients (tGP), as well as to a new approach that combines pGP with tGP. We find that the new approach, combining pGP with tGP, leads to large improvements in accurately forecasting future ADAS-Cog13 scores.