Is the expansion of the universe accelerating? All signs point to yes (1610.08972v3)

Abstract: The accelerating expansion of the universe is one of the most profound discoveries in modern cosmology, pointing to a universe in which 70% of the mass-energy density has an unknown form spread uniformly across the universe. This result has been well established using a combination of cosmological probes (e.g., Planck Collaboration et al. 2016), resulting in a "standard model" of modern cosmology that is a combination of a cosmological constant with cold dark matter and baryons. The first compelling evidence for the acceleration came in the late 1990's, when two independent teams studying type Ia supernovae discovered that distant SNe Ia were dimmer than expected. The combined analysis of modern cosmology experiments, including SNe Ia, the Hubble constant, baryon acoustic oscillations, and the cosmic microwave background has now measured the contributions of matter and the cosmological constant to the energy density of the universe to better than 0.01, providing a secure measurement of acceleration. A recent study (Tr{\o}st Nielsen et al. 2015) has claimed that the evidence for acceleration from SNe Ia is "marginal." Here we demonstrate errors in that analysis which reduce the acceleration significance from SNe Ia, and further demonstrate that conservative constraints on the curvature or matter density of the universe increase the significance even more. Analyzing the Joint Light-curve Analysis supernova sample, we find 4.2{\sigma} evidence for acceleration with SNe Ia alone, and 11.2{\sigma} in a flat universe. With our improved supernova analysis and by not rejecting all other cosmological constraints, we find that acceleration is quite secure.

Insights into the Accelerated Expansion of the Universe

The paper authored by Rubin and Hayden offers a detailed examination of the accelerating expansion of the universe, challenging notable claims within cosmological discourse and presenting robust analyses to confirm such acceleration. This document explores the methodology, findings, and implications posed by the authors, specifically targeting the significance of type-Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) observations.

Overview of Accelerated Expansion Context

The seminal discovery of the universe's accelerated expansion emerged in the late 1990s, hinging upon SNe Ia as standard candles for measuring cosmological distances. The unexpected faintness of high-redshift SNe Ia indicated a universe dominated by a cosmological constant or dark energy. Rubin and Hayden's current work revisits this paradigm, exploring potential errors in previous analyses, notably those by Nielsen et al. (2016), which cast doubt on the solidity of acceleration evidence derived from SNe Ia data.

Empirical Analysis and Statistical Models

Rubin and Hayden revisit the Joint Light-curve Analysis (JLA) data on SNe Ia, asserting the robustness of systematic recalibration and standardization essential for accurate cosmological inference. The authors identify and rectify errors within the Bayesian Hierarchical Model as used by Nielsen et al., specifically criticizing the assumption of redshift-independent distributions for $\text{SNe Ia}$ parameters such as light-curve width ($x_1$) and color ($c$). Their revised statistical analysis implements dynamic redshift-dependent models, properly reflecting the observed variations and increased luminosity distributions at higher redshifts due to selection effects.

Strong Numerical Results

Through rigorous statistical scrutiny, the authors reaffirm the evidence for universal acceleration. Leveraging a refined statistical framework, they deliver significant results—$4.2\sigma$ evidence for acceleration using SNe Ia alone, escalating to $11.2\sigma$ within a flat universe model. These findings sharply contrast with the previous claims of "marginal" acceleration and reinforce the empirical soundness of the accelerated universe hypothesis.

Broader Cosmological Implications

The outcome firmly establishes the prevailing cosmological model, consisting of cold dark matter and a cosmological constant as accurate descriptors of the universe's energy density makeup. By demonstrating the necessity of integrating external cosmological constraints—such as those from baryon acoustic oscillations and the cosmic microwave background—the paper underscores the synergistic utility of multi-probe analysis in refining cosmological parameters.

Future Directions and Theoretical Considerations

Rubin and Hayden's work bolsters confidence in current cosmological measurements and models, arguing that a failure to incorporate comprehensive data results in significant analytical inaccuracies. They advocate for continued enhancements in statistical modeling, particularly concerning SNe Ia standardization techniques and selection biases adjustments. In terms of theoretical physics, this could spur refinements in understanding the nature and behavior of dark energy.

Conclusion

The paper rigorously supports the acceleration of the universe's expansion, providing a compelling rebuttal to recent contradictory analyses. By fortifying the epoch-defining conclusion that dark energy shapes our universe, this research affirms the validity of the cosmological framework and highlights the crucial role of systematic empirical inquiry in advancing cosmological understanding. Future advancements in this domain will likely enhance the precision of dark energy characterization and elaboration on the large-scale structure of the cosmos.