Modeling the neutral hydrogen distribution in the post-reionization Universe: intensity mapping (1405.6713v2)

Abstract: We model the distribution of neutral hydrogen (HI) in the post-reionization era and investigate its detectability in 21 cm intensity mapping with the future SKA radio telescope. We rely on high resolution hydrodynamical N-body simulations. The HI is assigned a-posteriori to the gas particles following two different approaches: a halo-based method in which HI is assigned only to gas particles residing within dark matter halos; a particle-based method that assigns HI to all gas particles using a prescription based on the physical properties of the particles. The HI statistical properties are then compared to the observational properties of Damped Lyman-$\alpha$ Absorbers (DLAs) and of lower column density systems and reasonable good agreement is found for all the cases. Among the halo-based method, we further consider two different schemes that aim at reproducing the observed properties of DLAs by distributing HI inside halos: one of this results in a much higher bias for DLAs, in agreement with recent observations, which boosts the 21 cm power spectrum by a factor $\sim 4$ with respect to the other recipe. We compute the 21 cm power spectrum from the simulated HI distribution and calculate the expected signal for both SKA1-mid and SKA1-low configurations at $2.4 \leq z \leq 4$. We find that SKA will be able to detect the 21 cm power spectrum, in the non-linear regime, up to $k\sim 1\,h$/Mpc for SKA1-mid and $k\sim 5\,h$/Mpc for SKA1-low with 100 hours of observations. We also investigate the perspective of imaging the HI distribution. Our findings indicate that SKA1-low could detect the most massive HI peaks with a signal to noise ratio (SNR) higher than 5 for an observation time of about 1000 hours at $z=4$, for a synthesized beam width of $2'$. Detection at redshifts $z\geqslant2.4$ with SKA1-mid would instead require a much longer observation time to achieve a comparable SNR level.