A Method for Integrating Utility Analysis into an Expert System for Design Evaluation

Abstract: In mechanical design, there is often unavoidable uncertainty in estimates of design performance. Evaluation of design alternatives requires consideration of the impact of this uncertainty. Expert heuristics embody assumptions regarding the designer's attitude towards risk and uncertainty that might be reasonable in most cases but inaccurate in others. We present a technique to allow designers to incorporate their own unique attitude towards uncertainty as opposed to those assumed by the domain expert's rules. The general approach is to eliminate aspects of heuristic rules which directly or indirectly include assumptions regarding the user's attitude towards risk, and replace them with explicit, user-specified probabilistic multi attribute utility and probability distribution functions. We illustrate the method in a system for material selection for automobile bumpers.