Refine Predictions Ad Infinitum?

Abstract: We study how standard auction objectives in sponsored search markets change with refinements in the prediction of the relevance (click-through rates) of ads. We study mechanisms that optimize for a convex combination of efficiency and revenue. We show that the objective function of such a mechanism can only improve with refined (improved) relevance predictions, i.e., the search engine has no disincentive to perform these refinements. More interestingly, we show that under assumptions, refinements to relevance predictions can only improve the efficiency of any such mechanism. Our main technical contribution is to study how relevance refinements affect the similarity between ranking by virtual-value (revenue ranking) and ranking by value (efficiency ranking). Finally, we discuss implications of our results to the literature on signaling.