On the changeover timescales of technology transitions and induced efficiency changes: an overarching theory

Abstract: This paper presents a general theory that aims at explaining timescales observed empirically in technology transitions and predicting those of future transitions. This framework is used further to derive a theory for exploring the dynamics that underlie the complex phenomenon of irreversible and path dependent price or policy induced efficiency changes. Technology transitions are known to follow patterns well described by logistic functions, which should more rigorously be modelled mathematically using the Lotka-Volterra family of differential equations, originally developed to described the population growth of competing species. The dynamic evolution of technology has also been described theoretically using evolutionary dynamics similar to that observed in nature. The theory presented here joins both approaches and presents a methodology for predicting changeover time constants in order to describe real systems of competing technologies. The problem of price or policy induced efficiency changes becomes naturally explained using this framework. Examples of application are given.