Comparison of LIGO/Virgo upper limits with predicted compact binary merger rates

Abstract: We compare the current LIGO/Virgo upper limits on double compact object volumetric merger rates with our theoretical predictions. Our optimistic models are a factor of 3 below the existing upper limits for massive BH-BH systems with total mass 50-70 Msun, suggesting that a small increase in observational sensitivity may bring the first detections. The LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave observatories are currently being upgraded to advanced design sensitivity. If a sizeable population of BH-BH binaries is detected, the maximum total binary mass of this population will discriminate between two general families of common envelope models. If no binaries are detected, the new upper limits will provide astrophysically useful information about the environment and physical processes (e.g., metallicity of host galaxies or BH natal kicks) crucial to the formation of binaries containing black holes. For NS-NS systems, our predicted rates are 3 orders of magnitude below the current upper limits; even if advanced instruments reach their design sensitivities (factors of 10 times in distance, and 1,000 times in volumetric rate) the detection of NS-NS systems is not assured. However, we note that although our predicted NS-NS merger rates are consistent with estimates derived from Galactic NS-NS binaries and short GRBs, they are on the low side of these empirical estimates.