Space Weather Prediction with Exascale Computing

Abstract: Space weather refers to conditions on the Sun, in the interplanetary space and in the Earth space environment that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health. Adverse conditions in the space environment can cause disruption of satellite operations, communications, navigation, and electric power distribution grids, leading to a variety of socioeconomic losses. The conditions in space are also linked to the Earth climate. The activity of the Sun affects the total amount of heat and light reaching the Earth and the amount of cosmic rays arriving in the atmosphere, a phenomenon linked with the amount of cloud cover and precipitation. Given these great impacts on society, space weather is attracting a growing attention and is the subject of international efforts worldwide. We focus here on the steps necessary for achieving a true physics-based ability to predict the arrival and consequences of major space weather storms. Great disturbances in the space environment are common but their precise arrival and impact on human activities varies greatly. Simulating such a system is a grand- challenge, requiring computing resources at the limit of what is possible not only with current technology but also with the foreseeable future generations of super computers