Flexible extreme thresholds through generalised Bayesian model averaging (2504.20216v1)

Abstract: Insurance products frequently cover significant claims arising from a variety of sources. To model losses from these products accurately, actuarial models must account for high-severity claims. A widely used strategy is to apply a mixture model, fitting one distribution to losses below a given threshold and modeling excess losses using extreme value theory. However, selecting an appropriate threshold remains an open question with no universally agreed-upon solution. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) provides a promising alternative by enabling the simultaneous consideration of multiple thresholds. In this paper, we show that an error integration BMA algorithm can effectively detect heterogeneous optimal thresholds that adapt to predictive variables through the combination of mixture models. This method enhances model accuracy by capturing the full loss distribution and lessening sensitivity to threshold choice. We validate the proposed approach using simulation studies and an application to an automobile claims dataset from a Canadian insurer. As a special case, we also study the homogeneous setting, where a single optimal threshold is selected, and compare it to automatic selection algorithms based on goodness-of-fit tests applied to an actuarial dataset.