Reassessing How to Compare and Improve the Calibration of Machine Learning Models (2406.04068v1)

Abstract: A machine learning model is calibrated if its predicted probability for an outcome matches the observed frequency for that outcome conditional on the model prediction. This property has become increasingly important as the impact of machine learning models has continued to spread to various domains. As a result, there are now a dizzying number of papers on measuring and improving the calibration of (specifically deep learning) models. In this work, we reassess the reporting of calibration metrics in the recent literature. We show that there exist trivial recalibration approaches that can appear seemingly state-of-the-art unless calibration and prediction metrics (i.e. test accuracy) are accompanied by additional generalization metrics such as negative log-likelihood. We then derive a calibration-based decomposition of Bregman divergences that can be used to both motivate a choice of calibration metric based on a generalization metric, and to detect trivial calibration. Finally, we apply these ideas to develop a new extension to reliability diagrams that can be used to jointly visualize calibration as well as the estimated generalization error of a model.