Calibration in Deep Learning: A Survey of the State-of-the-Art (2308.01222v3)

Abstract: Calibrating deep neural models plays an important role in building reliable, robust AI systems in safety-critical applications. Recent work has shown that modern neural networks that possess high predictive capability are poorly calibrated and produce unreliable model predictions. Though deep learning models achieve remarkable performance on various benchmarks, the study of model calibration and reliability is relatively underexplored. Ideal deep models should have not only high predictive performance but also be well calibrated. There have been some recent advances in calibrating deep models. In this survey, we review the state-of-the-art calibration methods and their principles for performing model calibration. First, we start with the definition of model calibration and explain the root causes of model miscalibration. Then we introduce the key metrics that can measure this aspect. It is followed by a summary of calibration methods that we roughly classify into four categories: post-hoc calibration, regularization methods, uncertainty estimation, and composition methods. We also cover recent advancements in calibrating large models, particularly LLMs. Finally, we discuss some open issues, challenges, and potential directions.