Gaussian Process Regression models for the properties of micro-tearing modes in spherical tokamak (2309.09785v2)

Abstract: Spherical tokamaks (STs) have many desirable features that make them an attractive choice for a future fusion power plant. Power plant viability is intrinsically related to plasma heat and particle confinement and this is often determined by the level of micro-instability driven turbulence. Accurate calculation of the properties of turbulent micro-instabilities is therefore critical for tokamak design, however, the evaluation of these properties is computationally expensive. The considerable number of geometric and thermodynamic parameters and the high resolutions required to accurately resolve these instabilities makes repeated use of direct numerical simulations in integrated modelling workflows extremely computationally challenging and creates the need for fast, accurate, reduced-order models. This paper outlines the development of a data-driven reduced-order model, often termed a {\it surrogate model} for the properties of micro-tearing modes (MTMs) across a spherical tokamak reactor-relevant parameter space utilising Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) and classification; techniques from machine learning. These two components are used in an active learning loop to maximise the efficiency of data acquisition thus minimising computational cost. The high-fidelity gyrokinetic code GS2 is used to calculate the linear properties of the MTMs: the mode growth rate, frequency and normalised electron heat flux; core components of a quasi-linear transport model. Five-fold cross-validation and direct validation on unseen data is used to ascertain the performance of the resulting surrogate models.