Estimating the prevalence of malicious extraterrestrial civilizations (2205.11618v1)

Abstract: This paper attempts to provide an estimation of the prevalence of hostile extraterrestrial civilizations through an extrapolation of the probability that we, as the human civilization, would attack or invade an inhabited exoplanet once we become a Type-1 civilization in the Kardashev Scale capable of nearby interstellar travel. The estimation is based on the world's history of invasions in the last century, the military capabilities of the countries involved, and the global growth rate of energy consumption. Upper limits of standard deviations are used in order to obtain the estimated probability of extraterrestrial invasion by a civilization whose planet we send a message to. Results show that such probability is two orders of magnitude lower than the impact probability of a planet-killer asteroid. These findings could serve as a starting point for an international debate about sending the first serious interstellar radio messages to nearby potentially habitable planets.

• The paper introduces a novel method that extrapolates historical human invasion data to estimate the hostile potential of extraterrestrial civilizations.
• It employs metrics like military expenditure and energy trends to compute a baseline Type-1 civilization invasion probability of approximately 0.0014%.
• The findings suggest a minimal risk in contacting ET, supporting proactive METI strategies while urging ethical and international discussion on interstellar engagement.

Estimating the Prevalence of Malicious Extraterrestrial Civilizations

The paper by Alberto Caballero introduces an unconventional quantitative approach to address concerns about malicious extraterrestrial civilizations. By extrapolating historical human behavior towards invasions, the research aims to estimate the probability that an advanced extraterrestrial civilization might pose a threat to Earth, should an intentional communication be sent to them.

Methodological Approach

The paper implements a method that bridges astrobiology with historical geopolitics. The central tenet lies in predicting human propensity to invade a potentially inhabited exoplanet upon achieving Type-1 status on the Kardashev Scale—a designation of civilization capable of interstellar travel and advanced energy consumption. Historical data from 1915 to 2022 on human invasions, weighted against military expenditure, provides a foundational metric for estimating human aggression potential.

The estimated baseline probability of Earth’s civilizations engaging in interstellar hostilities is computed using historical invasion frequencies. Using this baseline, along with global energy consumption trends—a proxy for technological advancement—Caballero extrapolates these probabilities to potential Type-1 civilization scenarios.

Key Findings and Numerical Insights

Caballero's results suggest that the probability of a hostile response from a messaged civilization is markedly lower than that of a natural catastrophic event like an asteroid impact. The paper cites that the probability of a Type-1 civilization engaging in invasion is approximately 0.0014%, contrasted starkly against the impact probability of a planet-destroying asteroid, such as one of Chicxulub magnitude, which is presented as 1E-06%.

Utilizing the upper limit of potential intelligent civilizations in the galaxy, hypothetically 15,785 according to prior estimates, the probability of encountering a malicious extraterrestrial civilization when contacting a specific exoplanet adjusts to 5.52E-8%. This is calculated against the backdrop of 40 billion potentially habitable planets suggested by the Planetary Habitability Laboratory.

Implications and Theoretical Considerations

The implications of Caballero's findings extend to the broader discussion of METI (Messaging to Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) initiatives. Notably, the demonstrated low probability of malign intent suggests a tangible pathway to potentially initiate first-contact scenarios without disproportionate risk. Furthermore, the model underscores an ethical responsibility for the scientific community to advance international discussions regarding proactive communication with extraterrestrial civilizations.

Theoretical implications touch on Fermi's Paradox and the Drake Equation, providing a reframed perspective on the likelihood of extraterrestrial threats in the context of communication strategies. By statistically modeling aggression through historical human behavior, this research invites a reassessment of strategic extraterrestrial engagement parameters.

Future Directions in AI and Interstellar Communication

While not explicitly covered within the paper, the methodology could be refined and augmented with AI predictive models that analyze geopolitical dynamics in more granular detail. The utilization of machine learning algorithms to simulate potential interstellar encounters, driven by AI models trained on extensive historical and sociopolitical datasets, could expand on Caballero’s findings, offering more nuanced projections of extraterrestrial interaction risks.

As humanity's space-faring capabilities advance, how the interstellar communication strategy develops will significantly depend on increasing computational capabilities and international regulatory frameworks supported by such quantitative risk assessments.