"First in, last out" solution to the Fermi Paradox (1803.08425v2)

Abstract: No present observations suggest a technologically advanced extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) has spread through the galaxy. However, under commonplace assumptions about galactic civilization formation and expansion, this absence of observation is highly unlikely. This improbability constitutes the Fermi Paradox. In this paper, I argue that the Paradox has a trivial solution, requiring no controversial assumptions, which is rarely suggested or discussed. However, that solution would be hard to accept, as it predicts a future for our own civilization that is even worse than extinction.

• The paper presents a novel resolution to the Fermi Paradox by suggesting that expansionist civilizations may inadvertently eradicate competing life forms.
• The paper employs a substrate-invariant definition of life and introduces probability parameters to explain the rare detection of extraterrestrial intelligence.
• The paper highlights the existential risk and ethical challenges of unchecked cosmic expansion, reinforcing the anthropic principle in guiding future research.

Analysis of the "First in, last out" Solution to the Fermi Paradox

The paper by A.A. Berezin, originating from the National Research University of Electronic Technology (MIET), aims to address the Fermi Paradox by offering a novel explanation that deviates from conventional hypotheses. This paradox centers on the discrepancy between the high probability of extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) in the universe and the lack of observable evidence for such life. Berezin's proposition refrains from the typical assumption-heavy explanations and instead suggests a seemingly simplistic resolution which could have profound implications for humanity's future.

Core Premise

Berezin's central thesis proposes that if an intelligent civilization evolves to a stage where it can travel interstellarly or communicate across star systems, it inadvertently eradicates competing life forms due to its expansionistic behavior. The proposition suggests that this form of life expansion might be analogous to a construction crew inadvertently destroying an anthill when building real estate, driven by lack of incentive and awareness rather than malice.

Simplified Life Definition

The argument hinges on a substrate-invariant definition of life that includes traits like energy consumption, adaptation, responsiveness, growth, and reproduction, ignoring intelligence. Such basic characteristics imply an inherent drive for expansion. The hypothesis posits that without imposing any ethical or moral standards, life forms that achieve technological prowess necessary for space travel might prioritize resources acquisition, resulting in cosmic-scale competition where only the initial entrant is likely to survive and thrive.

Probability Parameters

Berezin introduces two critical parameters: the probability (A) of life becoming detectable from space and the likelihood (B) of several intelligent life forms encountering each other during their expansion phase. He suggests that these parameters are of similar magnitudes, implying that, generally, the conditions for encountering extraterrestrial life are inherently rare or isolated due to the likelihood of other life-forms being consumed or destroyed by a first, advanced civilization.

Previous Explanations and Comparison

This hypothesis extends the arguments put forward by Frank Tipler in 1981, who postulated the nonexistence of ETI as an explanation for the Fermi Paradox. Berezin supplements this by focusing on the anthropic principle, which accommodates the argument that humans might be the first life forms to achieve such a stage, hence the absence of contact with ETI.

Implications and Considerations

Berezin's hypothesis raises several profound implications:

1. Anthropic Principle Reinforcement: It posits human primacy in the universe, suggesting that the absence of observable ETI might be more due to our position as a pioneering civilization rather than a rare occurrence of life.
2. Predictability of Life Dynamics: Questions socioeconomic and moral systems on a universal scale, implying that life forms reaching advanced stages are subject to deterministic growth forces beyond individual free will.
3. Existential Risk: Raises the potential risk of humanity, if becoming such an expansive civilization, unknowingly obliterating nascent extraterrestrial species.

The paper encourages reconsideration of known socio-economic models applied cosmically, drawing a parallel to "The Tragedy of the Commons," where self-interest at an interstellar scale could prevent collaborative or conscious galaxy-sharing. The author concludes on a cautionary note, emphasizing the need for continued exploration and search for extraterrestrial life to validate or refute this hypothesis.

Future Directions

The considerations presented could foster dialogue on technological ethics, exploration strategies, and the societal implications of any potential contact with ETI. As humanity progresses, further work could entail simulations of cosmic expansion dynamics or analysis of historical societal growth patterns to extrapolate future extraterrestrial interactions. Additionally, exploring advanced civilizations' exploratory behaviors could elucidate mechanisms to potentially mitigate expansionist risks in the future.