Optimal Decision Rules Under Partial Identification (2111.04926v3)

Abstract: I consider a class of statistical decision problems in which the policy maker must decide between two alternative policies to maximize social welfare based on a finite sample. The central assumption is that the underlying, possibly infinite-dimensional parameter, lies in a known convex set, potentially leading to partial identification of the welfare effect. An example of such restrictions is the smoothness of counterfactual outcome functions. As the main theoretical result, I derive a finite-sample, exact minimax regret decision rule within the class of all decision rules under normal errors with known variance. When the error distribution is unknown, I obtain a feasible decision rule that is asymptotically minimax regret. I apply my results to the problem of whether to change a policy eligibility cutoff in a regression discontinuity setup, and illustrate them in an empirical application to a school construction program in Burkina Faso.