Importance sampling for maxima on trees (2004.08966v2)

Abstract: We consider the distributional fixed-point equation: $$R \stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=} Q \vee \left( \bigvee_{i=1}^N C_i R_i \right),$$ where the ${R_i}$ are i.i.d.~copies of $R$, independent of the vector $(Q, N, {C_i})$, where $N \in \mathbb{N}$, $Q, {C_i} \geq 0$ and $P(Q > 0) > 0$. By setting $W = \log R$, $X_i = \log C_i$, $Y = \log Q$ it is equivalent to the high-order Lindley equation $$W \stackrel{\mathcal{D}}{=} \max\left{ Y, \, \max_{1 \leq i \leq N} (X_i + W_i) \right}.$$ It is known that under Kesten assumptions, $$P(W > t) \sim H e^{-\alpha t}, \qquad t \to \infty,$$ where $\alpha>0$ solves the Cram\'er-Lundberg equation $E \left[ \sum_{j=1}^N C_i ^\alpha \right] = E\left[ \sum_{i=1}^N e^{\alpha X_i} \right] = 1$. The main goal of this paper is to provide an explicit representation for $P(W > t)$, which can be directly connected to the underlying weighted branching process where $W$ is constructed and that can be used to construct unbiased and strongly efficient estimators for all $t$. Furthermore, we show how this new representation can be directly analyzed using Alsmeyer's Markov renewal theorem, yielding an alternative representation for the constant $H$. We provide numerical examples illustrating the use of this new algorithm.