How much of the Solar System should we leave as Wilderness? (1905.13681v1)

Abstract: "How much of the Solar System should we reserve as wilderness, off-limits to human development?" We argue that, as a matter of policy, development should be limited to one eighth, with the remainder set aside. We argue that adopting a "1/8 principle" is far less restrictive, overall, than it might seem. One eighth of the iron in the asteroid belt is more than a million times greater than all of the Earth's estimated iron reserves and may suffice for centuries. A limit of some sort is needed because of the problems associated with exponential growth. Humans are poor at estimating the pace of such growth, so the limitations of a resource are hard to recognize before the final three doubling times which take utilization successively from 1/8 to 1/4 to 1/2, and then to the point of exhaustion. Population growth and climate change are instances of unchecked exponential growth. Each places strains upon ouru available resources. Each is a problem we would like to control but attempts to do so at this comparatively late stage have not been encouraging. Our limited ability to see ahead suggests that we should set ourselves a 'tripwire' that gives us at least 3 doubling times as leeway, i.e. when 1/8 of Solar System resources are close to being exploited. At a 3.5 percent growth rate for the space economy, comparable to that of the iron use from the beginning of the Industrial Revolution until now, the 1/8 point would be reached after 400 years. At that point the 20 year doubling time of a 3.5 percent growth rate means that only 60 years would remain to transition the economic system to new "steady state" conditions. The rationale for adopting the 1/8 principle now is that it may be far easier to implement in principle restrictions at an early stage, rather than later, when vested and competing interests have come into existence.

• The paper proposes a "one-eighth principle" recommending humanity limit development to one-eighth of the Solar System's exploitable materials to prevent catastrophic resource depletion.
• Quantitative analysis shows that even one-eighth of asteroid belt iron far exceeds Earth's reserves but could be exhausted in ~400 years at a 3.5% growth rate, highlighting the limited transition window.
• The principle necessitates regulatory frameworks for tracking space resource use and is robust across various ethical theories, emphasizing the duty to consider future generations and the need for a circular space economy.

Evaluating the One-Eighth Principle in Solar System Resource Utilization

The paper "How much of the Solar System should we leave as Wilderness?" by Martin Elvis and Tony Milligan presents a provocative exploration of resource utilization within the Solar System and proposes a "one-eighth principle" as a strategic guideline for resource exploitation and wilderness preservation. This essay provides an expert analysis of the paper, exploring its arguments, supporting calculations, and potential implications within the context of exponential economic growth.

The central thesis of the paper is the "one-eighth principle," which suggests limiting human development to no more than one-eighth of the Solar System's exploitable materials. This proposal is rooted in the observation of exponential growth trends in economies, similar to Earth's economic history. The authors argue that such growth, if unchecked, could lead to a point of "super-exploitation," where resources are depleted without feasible avenues for replenishment. The rationale is that by setting a limit early, before vested interests complicate policy adjustments, humanity can avoid a catastrophic depletion of resources.

Numerical Evidence and Growth Constraints

A key strength of the paper lies in its use of quantitative analysis to support the one-eighth principle. The authors assert that one-eighth of the iron in the asteroid belt surpasses a million times Earth's current iron ore reserves. By employing growth rate scenarios, the authors illustrate that, at a 3.5% growth rate, the space economy would exhaust this one-eighth in approximately 400 years, aligning with the challenges of exponential growth and creating a limited window for economic transition. This timeframe, while extensive, is presented as crucial for adapting to new conditions before reaching resource exhaustion.

The comparison between terrestrial economic growth and potential off-world scenarios is particularly insightful. The authors further substantiate this with historical data on industrial growth, suggesting that the one-eighth principle is not excessively restrictive. Even considering just a fraction of the asteroid belt's resources, the potential for development is vast relative to current terrestrial resources.

Implications and Theoretical Considerations

The proposed principle introduces several implications, both practical and theoretical. Firstly, it compels the development of comprehensive regulatory and measurement frameworks to track resource utilization across the Solar System. The paper suggests adopting surface area measurement for planets and large moons, while using mass for asteroids, adapting criteria based on factors like scale and accessibility.

By framing the principle within the context of different ethical theories, the authors emphasize its robustness. They assert that the duty to consider future generations is a minimal ethical claim common across rights-based, consequentialist, and virtue ethical frameworks. Thus, the proposed principle does not rest on any singular ethical stance, enhancing its applicability in diverse cultural and theoretical landscapes.

Speculative Future Directions

While the paper does not explore the specifics of potential technological advances, it highlights the importance of efficient recycling and resource management. The authors underline that a circular economy, which maximizes the recycling of materials, must be integral to any long-term expansion. This aligns with trends towards sustainable development, both on Earth and in potential future off-world habitats.

The speculation on constructing large-scale structures like Dyson spheres using one-eighth of asteroid resources is a thought experiment intended to provide perspective on the scale of resources available, even within the proposed constraints. This exercise underscores the principle's flexibility, allowing for significant development while maintaining a prudential buffer against super-exploitation.

Conclusion

The one-eighth principle advocated by Martin Elvis and Tony Milligan offers a pragmatic approach to Solar System exploration, advocating for a prudential limit that balances economic development with environmental conservation. By grounding their argument in mathematical modeling of growth patterns and historical analogies, the authors make a compelling case for early, principled intervention to forestall resource depletion crises. While centered on a precautionary ethic, the paper sets a foundational framework for future policy discussions and technological innovations in space exploration and resource management, ensuring a sustainable legacy for future generations.