Sparse Portfolio selection via Bayesian Multiple testing (1705.01407v4)

Abstract: We presented Bayesian portfolio selection strategy, via the $k$ factor asset pricing model. If the market is information efficient, the proposed strategy will mimic the market; otherwise, the strategy will outperform the market. The strategy depends on the selection of a portfolio via Bayesian multiple testing methodologies. We present the "discrete-mixture prior" model and the "hierarchical Bayes model with horseshoe prior." We define the Oracle set and prove that asymptotically the Bayes rule attains the risk of Bayes Oracle up to $O(1)$. Our proposed Bayes Oracle test guarantees statistical power by providing the upper bound of the type-II error. Simulation study indicates that the proposed Bayes oracle test is suitable for the efficient market with few stocks inefficiently priced. However, as the model becomes dense, i.e., the market is highly inefficient, one should not use the Bayes oracle test. The statistical power of the Bayes Oracle portfolio is uniformly better for the $k$-factor model ($k>1$) than the one factor CAPM. We present the empirical study, where we considered the 500 constituent stocks of S&P 500 from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), and S&P 500 index as the benchmark for thirteen years from the year 2006 to 2018. We showed the out-sample risk and return performance of the four different portfolio selection strategies and compared with the S&P 500 index as the benchmark market index. Empirical results indicate that it is possible to propose a strategy which can outperform the market.