Two-sample comparison through additive tree models for density ratios (2508.03059v1)

Abstract: The ratio of two densities characterizes their differences. We consider learning the density ratio given i.i.d. observations from each of the two distributions. We propose additive tree models for the density ratio along with efficient algorithms for training these models using a new loss function called the balancing loss. With this loss, additive tree models for the density ratio can be trained using algorithms original designed for supervised learning. Specifically, they can be trained from both an optimization perspective that parallels tree boosting and from a (generalized) Bayesian perspective that parallels Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). For the former, we present two boosting algorithms -- one based on forward-stagewise fitting and the other based on gradient boosting, both of which produce a point estimate for the density ratio function. For the latter, we show that due to the loss function's resemblance to an exponential family kernel, the new loss can serve as a pseudo-likelihood for which conjugate priors exist, thereby enabling effective generalized Bayesian inference on the density ratio using backfitting samplers designed for BART. The resulting uncertainty quantification on the inferred density ratio is critical for applications involving high-dimensional and complex distributions in which uncertainty given limited data can often be substantial. We provide insights on the balancing loss through its close connection to the exponential loss in binary classification and to the variational form of f-divergence, in particular that of the squared Hellinger distance. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the accuracy of the proposed approach while providing unique capabilities in uncertainty quantification. We demonstrate the application of our method in a case study involving assessing the quality of generative models for microbiome compositional data.