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Two-stage Conformal Risk Control with Application to Ranked Retrieval (2404.17769v2)

Published 27 Apr 2024 in cs.IR, stat.ME, and stat.ML

Abstract: Many practical machine learning systems, such as ranking and recommendation systems, consist of two concatenated stages: retrieval and ranking. These systems present significant challenges in accurately assessing and managing the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. To address these challenges, we extend the recently developed framework of conformal risk control, originally designed for single-stage problems, to accommodate the more complex two-stage setup. We first demonstrate that a straightforward application of conformal risk control, treating each stage independently, may fail to maintain risk at their pre-specified levels. Therefore, we propose an integrated approach that considers both stages simultaneously, devising algorithms to control the risk of each stage by jointly identifying thresholds for both stages. Our algorithm further optimizes for a weighted combination of prediction set sizes across all feasible thresholds, resulting in more effective prediction sets. Finally, we apply the proposed method to the critical task of two-stage ranked retrieval. We validate the efficacy of our method through extensive experiments on two large-scale public datasets, MSLR-WEB and MS MARCO, commonly used for ranked retrieval tasks.

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Summary

  • The paper introduces a novel two-stage conformal risk control method for managing uncertainties in both retrieval and ranking phases.
  • It defines retrieval and ranking risks, developing algorithms that maintain error bounds without relying on specific ranking models.
  • Empirical tests on three large public datasets validate the method’s potential to enhance search result reliability and efficiency.

Exploring Conformal Risk Control in Ranked Retrieval Systems

Introduction to Ranked Retrieval and Conformal Prediction

Ranked retrieval is a fundamental component of Information Retrieval (IR) used in search engines, recommendation systems, and other platforms where retrieving the most relevant information efficiently is crucial. This technique involves fetching and ranking documents from a large database based on their relevance to a query.

On the other hand, conformal prediction is a statistical framework used to assess the reliability of predictions made by machine learning models. It provides a way to control the uncertainty associated with predictions, ensuring that they meet a predefined level of confidence.

The paper presents a novel application of conformal risk control to ranked retrieval problems, focusing on managing risks at two distinct stages: the retrieval of candidate documents and the ranking of those documents. This method is designed to work without assuming the underlying ranking model, making it versatile for integration with existing systems.

Key Contributions of the Study

The paper introduces several important advancements to the field of IR and conformal prediction:

  • Defining Uncertainty: The researchers have formulated a concise way to measure the uncertainty in ranked retrieval tasks through conformal risk control, accommodating the two-stage nature of these systems.
  • Risk Control Algorithms: They developed innovative algorithms capable of maintaining the risk of retrieval and ranking stages within specific bounds.
  • Empirical Validation: Extensive testing was conducted on three large-scale public datasets, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed methods in real-world scenarios.

Problem Setup and Approach

The paper addresses a common two-stage ranked retrieval problem consisting of a retrieval stage and a ranking stage. The challenge lies in retrieving a set of candidate documents and ranking them in a way that places the most relevant documents at the top of the results list.

The authors approached the problem using conformal risk control, defining risks and losses specific to each stage:

  1. Retrieval Risk: Measured by the loss of document coverage in the candidate set retrieved.
  2. Ranking Risk: Quantified by differences in the expected and actual rankings of the documents.

Conformal Retrieval and Ranking Control

The paper delves deep into controlling the risks at both retrieval and ranking phases:

  • Retrieval Phase Control: Involves creating a prediction set based on a defined threshold, ensuring that the retrieval risk does not exceed a predetermined level.
  • Ranking Phase Control: Focuses on controlling the risk based on the quality of document ranking within the predicted set. It is noteworthy that the ranking risk also depends on the retrieval output, making it essential to control both jointly for effective risk management.

Practical Implications and Theoretical Advancements

The proposed methodology offers several practical benefits:

  • Enhanced Reliability: By quantifying and controlling risks, systems can provide more reliable search results, enhancing user trust and satisfaction.
  • Better Resource Allocation: Efficient models for retrieval and ranking can reduce computational costs and improve response times.

Theoretically, the research enriches the conformal prediction framework by adapting it to complex multi-stage problems like ranked retrieval, pushing the boundaries of what's achievable with these techniques.

Future Directions

Looking ahead, this research opens multiple avenues for further exploration:

  • Expansion to Other IR Tasks: The methods could be adapted for other IR-related tasks like automatic summarization or document clustering.
  • Integration with Advanced Models: Exploring integration with more complex models, such as those using deep learning, could yield even more robust ranking systems.
  • Real-World Applications: Practical deployment and testing in live environments would help in refining these methods further, potentially influencing the standard practices in search technologies.

Conclusion

This paper makes significant strides in applying conformal risk control to ranked retrieval systems, offering a robust framework to enhance the reliability and efficiency of search results. Its implications are far-reaching, potentially influencing how information retrieval systems are designed and operated to meet modern-day demands for accuracy and reliability. As the digital landscape continues to evolve, such research provides the critical tools needed to keep up with the growing demand for sophisticated information retrieval solutions.

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