Dependence of Earth's Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases (2006.03098v1)

Abstract: The atmospheric temperatures and concentrations of Earth's five most important, greenhouse gases, H$_2$O, CO$_2$, O$_3$, N$_2$O and CH$_4$ control the cloud-free, thermal radiative flux from the Earth to outer space. Over 1/3 million lines having strengths as low as $10^{-27}$ cm of the HITRAN database were used to evaluate the dependence of the forcing on the gas concentrations. For a hypothetical, optically thin atmosphere, where there is negligible saturation of the absorption bands, or interference of one type of greenhouse gas with others, the per-molecule forcings are of order $10^{-22}$ W for H$_2$O, CO$_2$, O$_3$, N$_2$O and CH$_4$. For current atmospheric concentrations, the per-molecule forcings of the abundant greenhouse gases H$_2$O and CO$_2$ are suppressed by four orders of magnitude. The forcings of the less abundant greenhouse gases, O$_3$, N$_2$O and CH$_4$, are also suppressed, but much less so. For current concentrations, the per-molecule forcings are two to three orders of magnitude greater for O$_3$, N$_2$O and CH$_4$, than those of H$_2$O or CO$_2$. Doubling the current concentrations of CO$_2$, N$_2$O or CH$_4$ increases the forcings by a few per cent. These forcing results are close to previously published values even though the calculations did not utilize either a CO$_2$ or H$_2$O continuum. The change in surface temperature due to CO$_2$ doubling is estimated taking into account radiative-convective equilibrium of the atmosphere as well as water feedback for the cases of fixed absolute and relative humidities as well as the effect of using a pseudoadiabatic lapse rate to model the troposphere temperature. Satellite spectral measurements at various latitudes are in excellent quantitative agreement with modelled intensities.

• The paper demonstrates that greenhouse gas absorption is largely saturated, with water vapor and CO2 showing a four-order suppression from optically thin limits.
• It employs a line-by-line analysis using over 300,000 HITRAN spectral lines to precisely quantify the radiative forcing of each major greenhouse gas under cloud-free conditions.
• Findings indicate that doubling CO2, N2O, or CH4 only marginally increases radiative forcing, highlighting the importance of refining climate models to account for overlapping gas effects.

Analysis of the Radiative Forcing by the Earth's Major Greenhouse Gases

The paper "Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases" by van Wijngaarden and Happer provides an in-depth quantitative analysis of how the five most prominent naturally occurring greenhouse gases (GHGs)—H₂O, CO₂, O₃, N₂O, and CH₄—affect Earth's thermal radiation dynamics. Using a database of over a third of a million spectral lines from HITRAN, the authors meticulously delineate the radiative forcing properties across these GHGs under cloud-free conditions using a line-by-line (LBL) approach.

Key Numerical Insights

The per-molecule forcings for H₂O and CO₂ at present atmospheric levels are significantly saturated, showing a suppression by about four orders of magnitude from their optically thin limits. For gases with lesser ambient concentrations like O₃, N₂O, and CH₄, this suppression is less pronounced, maintaining two to three orders of magnitude enhancement over saturated water vapor and carbon dioxide.

In a hypothetical scenario, doubling the concentrations of CO₂, N₂O, or CH₄ increments the radiative forcing by only a few percentage points. The calculated radiative forces demonstrate robust alignment with previously established results, notwithstanding some methodological differences, such as the non-utilization of continuum effects for CO₂ and H₂O forcings.

Theoretical and Practical Implications

This paper confirms prior findings that the radiation absorption of major GHGs is largely saturated, especially for CO₂ and H₂O, meaning additional molecules contribute minimally to further forcing in currently opaque spectral bands. The overlap between absorption bands limits the additivity of forcing values from each gas.

Practically, these findings solidify the understanding that CO₂ remains a pivotal GHG with a significant role in climate models, despite saturated forcing at present concentrations. The interplay highlighted between greenhouse gases could inform adjustments in climate models to more accurately represent energy balance changes with altering GHG compositions.

Future Perspectives on AI and Environmental Science

Given the rising sophistication of AI in atmospheric modeling, there is potential to integrate machine learning techniques with LBL approaches for more nuanced pattern recognition, especially for complex interactions observed when multiple GHGs operate simultaneously. Machine learning could enhance accuracy in predicting long-term climatic trends by simulating broader variables and intricate boundary conditions derived from extensive tabulation of empirical data.

Meanwhile, future work could look at expanding these results under the influence of clouds and aerosols, as well as investigating the geographic variability in GHG effects. The satellite data's affirmation of the LBL model accuracy bolsters confidence, but challenges like understanding water vapor feedback and engaging cloud climatology bear significant ramifications for refining climate modeling precision.

In conclusion, the authors provide a rigorous quantitative framework that delivers substantial clarity on the nuances of greenhouse gas forcings in a cloud-free atmosphere. Their research offers valuable implications for enhancing the fidelity of climate projections, notably in shedding light on the physics behind greenhouse gas interaction in the Earth's atmosphere.