Tourism Demand Forecasting: An Ensemble Deep Learning Approach

Abstract: The availability of tourism-related big data increases the potential to improve the accuracy of tourism demand forecasting, but presents significant challenges for forecasting, including curse of dimensionality and high model complexity. A novel bagging-based multivariate ensemble deep learning approach integrating stacked autoencoders and kernel-based extreme learning machines (B-SAKE) is proposed to address these challenges in this study. By using historical tourist arrival data, economic variable data and search intensity index (SII) data, we forecast tourist arrivals in Beijing from four countries. The consistent results of multiple schemes suggest that our proposed B-SAKE approach outperforms benchmark models in terms of level accuracy, directional accuracy and even statistical significance. Both bagging and stacked autoencoder can effectively alleviate the challenges brought by tourism big data and improve the forecasting performance of the models. The ensemble deep learning model we propose contributes to tourism forecasting literature and benefits relevant government officials and tourism practitioners.