Binary compact object coalescence rates: The role of elliptical galaxies (0908.3635v2)

Abstract: We estimate binary compact object merger detection rates for LIGO, including the binaries formed in ellipticals long ago. Specifically, we convolve hundreds of model realizations of elliptical- and spiral-galaxy population syntheses with a model for elliptical- and spiral-galaxy star formation history as a function of redshift. Our results favor local merger rate densities of 4\times 10^{-3} {Mpc}^{-3}{Myr}^{-1} for binary black holes (BH), 3\times 10^{-2} {Mpc}^{-3}{Myr}^{-1} for binary neutron stars (NS), and 10^{-2} {Mpc}^{-3}{Myr}^{-1} for BH-NS binaries. Mergers in elliptical galaxies are a significant fraction of our total estimate for BH-BH and BH-NS detection rates; NS-NS detection rates are dominated by the contribution from spiral galaxies. Using only models that reproduce current observations of Galactic NS-NS binaries, we find slightly higher rates for NS-NS and largely similar ranges for BH-NS and BH-BH binaries. Assuming a detection signal-to-noise ratio threshold of 8 for a single detector (as part of a network), corresponding to radii \Cv of the effective volume inside of which a single LIGO detector could observe the inspiral of two 1.4 M_\sun neutron stars of 14 Mpc and 197 Mpc, for initial and advanced LIGO, we find event rates of any merger type of 2.9* 10^{-2} -- 0.46 and 25-400 per year (at 90% confidence level), respectively. We also find that the probability P_{detect} of detecting one or more mergers with this single detector can be approximated by (i) P_{detect}\simeq 0.4+0.5\log (T/0.01{yr}), assuming \Cv=197 {Mpc} and it operates for T years, for T between 2 days and 0.1 {yr}); or by (ii) P_{detect}\simeq 0.5 + 1.5 \log \Cv/32{Mpc}, for one year of operation and for $\Cv$ between 20 and 70 Mpc. [ABRIDGED]