Maximizing Prefix-Confidence at Test-Time Efficiently Improves Mathematical Reasoning (2507.18122v1)

Abstract: Recent work has shown that LLMs can self-improve by maximizing their own confidence in their predictions, without relying on external verifiers or reward signals. In this work, we study the test-time scaling of LLMs for mathematical reasoning tasks, where the model's own confidence is used to select the most promising attempts. Surprisingly, we find that we can achieve significant performance gains by continuing only the most promising attempt, selected by the model's prefix-confidence. We systematically evaluate prefix-confidence scaling on five mathematical reasoning datasets: the school-level GSM8K and MATH500, and the competition-level AMC23, AIME24, and AIME25. We find that prefix-confidence scaling with prefixes of only 32 tokens achieves a better accuracy-compute trade-off than majority voting. Moreover, prefix-confidence scaling appears less susceptible than BoN to length biases. Finally, we also evaluate test-time training with prefix-confidence and find that, while outperforming the base model, it does not improve over prefix-confidence scaling.