Dynamic allocation: extremes, tail dependence, and regime Shifts (2506.12587v1)

Abstract: By capturing outliers, volatility clustering, and tail dependence in the asset return distribution, we build a sophisticated model to predict the downside risk of the global financial market. We further develop a dynamic regime switching model that can forecast real-time risk regime of the market. Our GARCH-DCC-Copula risk model can significantly improve both risk- and alpha-based global tactical asset allocation strategies. Our risk regime has strong predictive power of quantitative equity factor performance, which can help equity investors to build better factor models and asset allocation managers to construct more efficient risk premia portfolios.