The Epoch of Giant Planet Migration Planet Search Program. III. The Occurrence Rate of Young Giant Planets Inside the Water Ice Line (2506.08078v1)

Abstract: We present statistical results from the Epoch of Giant Planet Migration RV planet search program. This survey was designed to measure the occurrence rate of giant planets interior to the water ice line of young Sun-like stars, compare this to the prevalence of giant planets at older ages, and provide constraints on the timescale and dominant inward migration mechanism of giant planets. Our final sample amounts to 85 single young (20-200 Myr) G and K dwarfs which we target across a 4-year time baseline with the near-infrared Habitable-zone Planet Finder spectrograph at McDonald Observatory's Hobby-Eberly Telescope. As part of this survey, we discovered the young hot Jupiter HS Psc b. We characterize survey detection completeness with realistic injection-recovery tests and measure an occurrence rate of $1.9^{+2.6}_{-1.4}$% for intermediate-age giant planets ($0.3 < m \; sin \; i < 13$ $M_\mathrm{Jup}$) within 2.5 AU. This is lower than the field age occurrence rate for the same planet masses and separations and favors an increase in the prevalence of giant planets over time from $\sim$100 Myr to several Gyr, although our results cannot rule out a constant rate. A decaying planet occurrence rate is, however, strongly excluded. This suggests that giant planets located inside the water ice line originate from a combination of in situ formation or early migration coupled with longer-term inward scattering. The completeness-corrected prevalence of young hot Jupiters in our sample is $1.5^{+2.2}_{-1.1}$%--similar to the rate for field stars--and the 95% upper limit for young brown dwarfs within 5000 d is $<$3.6%.