Warming demands extensive tropical but minimal temperate management in plant-pollinator networks (2504.19879v1)

Abstract: Anthropogenic warming impacts ecological communities and disturbs species interactions, particularly in temperature sensitive plant pollinator networks. While previous assessments indicate that rising mean temperatures and shifting temporal variability universally elevate pollinator extinction risk, many studies often overlook how plant-pollinator networks of different ecoregions require distinct management approaches. Here, we integrate monthly near-surface temperature projections from various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways of CMIP6 Earth System Models with region-specific thermal performance parameters to simulate population dynamics in 11 plant pollinator networks across tropical, temperate, and Mediterranean ecosystems. Our results show that tropical networks, already near their thermal limits, face pronounced (50 percent) pollinator declines under high-emissions scenarios (SSP5-8.5). Multi-species management targeting keystone plants emerges as a critical strategy for stabilizing these high risk tropical systems, boosting both pollinator abundance and evenness. In contrast, temperate networks remain well below critical temperature thresholds, with minimal (5 percent) pollinator declines and negligible gains from any intensive management strategy. These findings challenge single-species models and uniform-parameter frameworks, which consistently underestimate tropical vulnerability while overestimating temperate risk. We demonstrate that explicitly incorporating complex network interactions, region-specific thermal tolerances, and targeted multi species interventions is vital for maintaining pollination services. By revealing when and where limited interventions suffice versus extensive management becomes indispensable, our study provides a clear blueprint for adaptive, ecosystem specific management under accelerating climate change.