KM3-230213A: An Ultra-High Energy Neutrino from a Year-Long Astrophysical Transient (2502.12986v1)

Abstract: The Km3NET collaboration has recently reported the detection of a neutrino event with energy in excess of 100 PeV. This detection is in 2.5-3$\sigma$ tension with the upper limit on the neutrino flux at this energy imposed by IceCube and the Pierre Auger Observatory, if the event is considered part of the diffuse all-sky neutrino flux. We explore an alternative possibility that the event originates from a flare of an isolated source. We show that the data of Km3NET, IceCube and the Pierre Auger Observatory are consistent with the possibility of a source flare of duration $T \lesssim 2$ yr with muon neutrino flux $F \approx 3\times 10^{-10}(1\mbox{ yr }/ T)$ erg cm$^{-2}$ s$^{-1}$. Constraints on the neutrino spectrum indicate that the protons responsible for the neutrino emission have a very hard spectrum in the $E_p\gtrsim 10^{19}$ eV energy range, or otherwise that the neutrinos are produced by photohadronic interactions with infrared photons. The all-sky rate of similar neutrino flaring sources is constrained to be $R\lesssim 0.4/$ yr.