A physics-engineering-economic model coupling approach for estimating the socio-economic impacts of space weather scenarios (2412.18032v1)

Abstract: There is growing concern about our vulnerability to space weather hazards and the disruption critical infrastructure failures could cause to society and the economy. However, the socio-economic impacts of space weather hazards, such as from geomagnetic storms, remain under-researched. This study introduces a novel framework to estimate the economic impacts of electricity transmission infrastructure failure due to space weather. By integrating existing geophysical and geomagnetically induced current (GIC) estimation models with a newly developed geospatial model of the Continental United States power grid, GIC vulnerabilities are assessed for a range of space weather scenarios. The approach evaluates multiple power network architectures, incorporating input-output economic modeling to translate business and population disruptions into macroeconomic impacts from GIC-related thermal heating failures. The results indicate a daily GDP loss from 6 billion USD to over 10 billion USD. Even under conservative GIC thresholds (75 A/ph) aligned with thermal withstand limits from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), significant economic disruptions are evident. This study is limited by its restriction to thermal heating analysis, though GICs can also affect the grid through other pathways, such as voltage instability and harmonic distortions. Addressing these other failure mechanisms need to be the focus of future research.

• The paper presents a novel physics-engineering-economic model coupling approach to assess socio-economic impacts of space weather scenarios on the US power grid.
• The model estimates daily economic losses between $6 billion and over $10 billion from power grid failures, highlighting high vulnerability in areas like the northeastern US.
• This framework provides policymakers and industry tools to assess risks, guide investments in infrastructure resilience, and serves as a template for analyzing other critical infrastructure.

A Multidisciplinary Framework to Evaluate the Economic Impact of Space Weather on US Power Infrastructure

The paper entitled "A physics-engineering-economic model coupling approach for estimating the socio-economic impacts of space weather scenarios" presents a comprehensive framework designed to assess the socio-economic impacts of space weather, particularly geomagnetic storms, on the United States electricity transmission infrastructure. The authors introduce a novel methodology that integrates geophysical models with a geospatial model of the US power grid, facilitating a detailed examination of Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) and their macroeconomic repercussions.

The paper addresses the evident gap in literature concerning the economic impacts of space weather, traditionally focused more on the physical phenomena and immediate infrastructure disruptions. By analyzing the structure of the US power grid using open-source data, the paper establishes a foundation to assess the grid's vulnerability under various space weather scenarios. The analysis is concentrated on Extra High Voltage (EHV) substations, which play a crucial role in the network's susceptibility to GICs.

The framework devised by the authors employs a sophisticated model coupling technique, which integrates a geoelectric model with a macroeconomic Input-Output (IO) model to predict the socio-economic implications of space weather-induced disruptions. This approach enables the estimation of economic losses, ranging between $6 billion and over$10 billion per day, resulting from potential infrastructure failures during geomagnetic events. The inclusion of subsystems, such as stochastic Monte Carlo simulations and the Lehtinen-Pirjola modified method for GIC estimation, allows for comprehensive sensitivity analyses across various GIC thresholds, testing the robustness of the US power network.

Results from the paper indicate significant economic ramifications even under conservative scenarios with GIC thresholds aligned with North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) thermal withstand limits. The research highlights that grounded Wye-type transformers are particularly vulnerable to GIC influence, emphasizing the risk to the northeastern United States, where the highest GIC instances are forecasted.

The implications of this research are manifold. Practically, this framework provides policymakers and industry stakeholders with a structured tool for assessing risks and devising more effective mitigation strategies, potentially guiding investments in infrastructure resilience and GIC shielding technologies. Theoretically, the paper extends the application of integrated geophysical-economic modeling to the domain of space weather risks, offering a template that could be adapted for other regions or types of critical infrastructure.

Future research, as recommended by the authors, should expand to consider other GIC-induced grid instabilities, such as voltage collapse and harmonic distortions. Moreover, the integration of more dynamic economic models, such as Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models, could refine the assessment of sectoral economic relationships, capturing non-linear dependencies more accurately.

In conclusion, the paper contributes a critical tool to the academic and practical understanding of space weather impacts, pushing the boundaries of current research methodologies by offering a comprehensive model that spans physics, engineering, and economics. This interdisciplinary approach not only reveals the extensive potential impacts of space weather on a macroeconomic scale but also underlines the urgent need for cross-sectoral resilience planning in anticipation of these natural hazards.