Far-right party influence on polarization dynamics in electoral campaign (2410.23177v1)

Abstract: Political polarization has attracted increasing attention in recent years, driven by the rise of social media and the global emergence of far-right populist movements. This study investigates the dynamics of structural polarization during electoral campaigns in multi-party systems, with a particular focus on the presence of far-right actors and their influence on polarization patterns and hate speech. Using retweet networks as a measure of structural polarization, we analyze two case studies in Spain: the 2022 Andalusia regional elections, where the far-right party Vox was a significant contender, and the 2019 Barcelona city council elections, where the party had no representation. Our results reveal that the presence of a far-right party intensifies polarization, leading to the formation of two distinct ideological blocks aligned along left-right ideological axes, as observed in Andalusia. In contrast, the Catalan independence movement in Barcelona diluted the alignment of voters, resulting in a more complex, multi-axis polarization landscape. We also explore the relationship between polarization and hate speech, finding an anti-correlation between them in both cases. Our findings underscore the significant role of far-right movements in driving political polarization and the nuanced effects of different political contexts on polarization dynamics.

• The paper uses Twitter retweet networks in two case studies to show that Vox’s presence triggers sharp polarization spikes on election day.
• It contrasts binary polarization in Andalusia with fragmented political dynamics in Barcelona, highlighting the effect of regional issues.
• It identifies an anti-correlation between polarization levels and hate speech incidence, suggesting enhanced engagement from counter-hate groups.

Analyzing the Influence of Far-Right Parties on Political Polarization During Electoral Campaigns

The paper entitled "Far-right party influence on polarization dynamics in electoral campaign" offers an empirically grounded analysis of the role far-right parties exert on political polarization during electoral campaigns, particularly within multi-party systems. Using Twitter-derived retweet networks as a measure of structural polarization, the authors present findings from two empirical case studies: the 2022 Andalusia regional elections and the 2019 Barcelona city council elections. These case studies were selected to distinctly capture the influence of far-right party presence, as Vox was a significant player in Andalusia and absent in Barcelona.

Summary of Findings

The paper's analysis reveals a notable divergence in polarization dynamics between these two contexts. In the Andalusian elections, where Vox significantly participated, the polarization peaked sharply on election day, suggesting the considerable influence Vox wielded in forming two ideological blocks—right and left. The presence of Vox correlated strongly with both increased polarized discussions and participant engagement throughout the campaign period.

Conversely, the dynamics in Barcelona, underpinned by Catalan independence issues, exhibited a more nuanced polarization landscape, fragmenting along multiple axes. This fragmentation diluted the type of binary polarization observed in Andalusia. This distinction underscores the complexity of polarization in multi-party settings, where regional issues like independence can overlay traditional left-right divides.

A significant aspect the paper explores is the relationship between polarization and hate speech. The paper finds an anti-correlation between polarization levels and the incidence of hate speech, particularly before the election date. The implication here is critical: as Vox's presence increased polarization, there was a relative decrease in hate speech tweets, attributed to the rise in engagement from polarized groups opposing hate rhetoric.

Theoretical and Practical Implications

Theoretically, the paper advances our understanding of contemporary electoral dynamics. It challenges the straightforward application of polarization metrics seen in two-party systems to multi-party contexts, suggesting that new emergent actors, like far-right parties, play critical roles in shaping these dynamics. The polarizing effect exerted by these parties is profound, bifurcating political discourse into antagonistic camps.

Practically, this paper is invaluable for political strategists, policymakers, and social media platforms, providing insights into how far-right parties can alter public discourse during elections, influencing not only campaign strategies but also the broader political stability within multi-party systems. The findings on hate speech offer strategic avenues for civic education and regulatory frameworks to better manage elections in a social media age.

Future Directions

The paper paves the way for several future research directives. A natural extension could involve comparative cross-national studies to test the generalizability of these findings in different socio-political contexts where far-right parties are active. Moreover, employing alternative social media platforms as data proxies could provide a richer understanding of user engagement and polarization. Exploring the temporal shifts in network structures beyond election periods could also yield substantive insights into longer-term effects on political allegiance and discourse.

In conclusion, this research contributes significant empirical evidence to the discourse on political polarization, strategically highlighting the disruptive potential of far-right parties in electoral contexts. The paper’s nuanced analysis reiterates the importance of accounting for diverse political landscapes when assessing polarization, offering a comprehensive framework for future inquiries into electoral politics and social media’s role therein.