Variance reduction combining pre-experiment and in-experiment data (2410.09027v1)

Abstract: Online controlled experiments (A/B testing) are essential in data-driven decision-making for many companies. Increasing the sensitivity of these experiments, particularly with a fixed sample size, relies on reducing the variance of the estimator for the average treatment effect (ATE). Existing methods like CUPED and CUPAC use pre-experiment data to reduce variance, but their effectiveness depends on the correlation between the pre-experiment data and the outcome. In contrast, in-experiment data is often more strongly correlated with the outcome and thus more informative. In this paper, we introduce a novel method that combines both pre-experiment and in-experiment data to achieve greater variance reduction than CUPED and CUPAC, without introducing bias or additional computation complexity. We also establish asymptotic theory and provide consistent variance estimators for our method. Applying this method to multiple online experiments at Etsy, we reach substantial variance reduction over CUPAC with the inclusion of only a few in-experiment covariates. These results highlight the potential of our approach to significantly improve experiment sensitivity and accelerate decision-making.