Modeling the Solar System as an Observed Multi-Transit System I: Characterization Limits from Analytic Timing Variations (2407.13154v2)

Abstract: Planetary systems with multiple transiting planets are beneficial for understanding planet occurrence rates and system architectures. Although we have yet to find a solar system (SS) analog, future surveys may detect multiple terrestrial planets transiting a Sun-like star. In this work, we simulate transit timing observations of our Solar System as viewed from a distance and based on the actual orbital motions of Venus and the Earth-Moon Barycenter, as influenced by the other SS bodies, with varying noise levels and observing durations. We then retrieve the system's dynamical parameters using an approximate N-body model for transit timing shifts while considering four possible plane-parallel configurations: two planets, three planets, four planets, and five planets. We demonstrate that -- with the retrieval applied to simulated transit times of Venus and EMB -- we can: 1) detect Jupiter at high significance (up to 90-s timing noise); 2) measure the masses and orbits of both transiting planets (mass-ratios are down to 4-8% uncertainty for the 3-planet model) ; 3) detect Mars with more than $5\sigma$ given very high level precision (10s of seconds). To accurately characterize Jupiter, we require timing precisions of better than 30 seconds and survey durations longer than 22 years. Accurate retrieval of Mars is possible when the survey baseline is longer than 25 years. Additionally, while Jupiter's mass is underestimated in most of our simulated cases, the addition of Mars improves the posterior mass, suggesting that unseen terrestrials could interfere in the characterization of multi-planetary systems if they are nearly resonant to transiting planets. Ultimately, these simulations will help to guide future missions -- such as PLATO, Nautilus, LUVOIR, and Ariel -- in detecting and characterizing exoplanet systems analogous to our Solar System.