Implications of DES 5YR SNe Dataset for $Λ$CDM (2406.06389v3)

Abstract: Dark Energy Survey five-year supernovae data (DES 5YR SNe) in conjunction with Planck CMB and Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) BAO data has detected a strong dynamical dark energy (DE) deviation from the $\Lambda$CDM model.Here we shift the focus of DES data to the pressureless matter sector in the $\Lambda$CDM model by studying the matter density parameter $\Omega_m$. Employing primarily frequentist profile likelihoods, supported by complementary Bayesian methods, we demonstrate that $\Omega_m$ increases with effective redshift in the DES data up to a point that there is a $2.5 \sigma$ discrepancy with Planck. We relax the traditional $\Omega_m \leq 1$ prior to demonstrate negative DE densities $\Omega_m > 1$ at the highest effective redshift probed. Nevertheless, the largest discrepancy with Planck occurs for profile likelihoods and posteriors peaked at $\Omega_m < 1$ in the traditional $\Lambda$CDM regime. Our findings corroborate earlier observations in Pantheon and Pantheon+ datasets with an independent SNe dataset with a higher effective redshift. In an appendix, we confirm that curvature $\Omega_k$ decreases with effective redshift disfavouring a flat Universe in higher redshift DES SNe at $> 3 \sigma$. Our choice of $\Omega_k$ prior leads to an underestimation of the tension with a flat Universe.